Global consultancy PwC said India is expected to
‘turn the corner’ on the back of structural reforms and its economy is
projected to clock 7 per cent growth in 2015 even as China would see an
economic slowdown.
In a study, PwC said India is expected to resume
growing at more than 6 per cent after seeing expansion below this level since
2012.
“We think 2015 could be the year that India turns
the corner, posting growth of around 7 per cent. In the short term, low oil
prices are likely to increase GDP growth, ease the pressures of India’s high
current account deficit and help bring down inflation,” it said.
Regarding the country’s medium term economic prospects,
PwC said, “medium-term, we think that the February 2015 budget could see India
take a step towards implementing new structural reforms which will boost the
economy”.
India’s economic growth was below 5 per cent in the
last two financial years. The Reserve Bank of India forecast the economy to
grow at 5.5 per cent in 2014-15 (ending this March) and at 6.3 per cent in next
financial year 2015-16 (ending March 2016).
PwC said that even though China is expected to make
the biggest contribution to global growth this year, its projected growth rate
of 7.2 per cent “would be its slowest since 1990 and its high debt levels pose
some downside risks to that main scenario”.
While the United States is expected to see the
fastest growth in a decade, euro zone is anticipated to see quantitative easing
programme involving the purchase of government bonds, it noted.
As per the report, businesses should look out for
three factors this year — oil prices, hard landing in China and escalation of
geopolitical risks.
“Our predictions and projections assume that oil
prices will average between USD 60-70 over the course of 2015 and finish the
year at around USD 80. However, due to the highly unpredictable nature of oil
prices, businesses should plan for different scenarios,” PwC senior economist
Richard Boxshall said.
Besides, an escalation of the geopolitical tensions
in Russia and Ukraine as well as in the Middle East could have a negative
influence on business confidence, with consequent implications for global
growth, it added.
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